Mathematical Modeling on Assessing Rate of deforestation in The Sheka Forest South West Ethiopia


  • Yilekal Yewlu Taddesse Bahir Dar University, Ethiopia



Population Density, Rate of Deforestation, Mathematical Model


Deforestation leads to increasing temperature and depletion of soil nutrients, to soil erosion, and to changes in local and, some evidence indicates, global climate. These environmental disruptions increase the risk to human populations from both natural and man-made disasters and the immediate risk-takers are the local population. Tropical deforestation has become a global concern, with an annual total forest loss of 9.4 million hectares. The total forested area of Ethiopia has decreased substantially during the past half-century and the recent figures show that the country’s forest cover has shrunk to less than 3–3.6%. Primary data was collected from the local community in addition to the secondary data about the forest. The growth rates of forestry resources and population density are assumed to be following the logistic growth model. The growth of forest resources is in the direct proportion of population density and population pressure. The mathematical model of a system of differential equations was solved using backward Euler’s method; the deforestation rate was decreased because of the NGOs and the government worked together to increase awareness to the community about the importance of the forest. The rate of deforestation is per population change, this indicates the rate of deforestation is decreased. Recommendations were given to the concerned body.


Allen, J.C and Barnes, D. F. (1985). The cause of deforestation in developing countries. Annals of the association of American Geographers, 75, 163-184

Anonymous (1988). National Atlas of Ethiopia.Ethiopian Mapping Agency, Addis Ababa

Antonio W. (2004), Modeling on deforestation base lines using the forest area change model for the Calakmul and mesetaPurepecha regions in mexico, Winrock international.

DabaWirtu (2000). Environmental Profile of Ethiopia: At the Dawn of the Third Millennium, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Dubey, B., Sharma, S., Sinha, P., and Shukla J.B: Modelling the depletion of forestry resources by population and population pressure augmented industrialization, Applied Mathematical Sciences, 33, 3002–3014, (2009).

FAO (2000a.), Global Forest Resources Assessment. Rome, Italy: FAO.

Friis I. (1992), Forests and Forest Trees of Northeast Tropical Africa.Their Natural Habitats and Distribution Patterns in Ethiopia, Djibouti and Somalia.Kew Bulletin Additional Series XV. Kew, United Kingdom: HMSO [Her Majesty’s Stationery Office].

Lanley, J.P.(1983). Assessment of forest resources of the tropics. Forestry Abestracts 44, 287- 318.Learning, Isaac Forest Resources, Ecotrust Canada, and The National Aboriginal Forestry

Manju Agarwal and Rachana Pathak: Conservation of Forestry Biomass and wildlife population: A Mathematical Model, Asian Journal of Mathematics and Computer Research, 4 (1): 1–15, (2015).

Manju Agarwala, Tazeen Fatimaa and Freedman H.I.: Depletion of forestry resource biomass due to industrialization pressure: a ratio-dependent mathematical model, Journal of Biological Dynamics, Vol. 4, No. 4, 381–396, (2010).

Melaku B. (1992), Forest History of Ethiopia from Early Times to 1974 [MPhil thesis]. Bangor, UK:University College of North Wales.

Reusing M. (1998), Monitoring of Natural High Forest Resources in Ethiopia. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: Ministry of Agriculture.

Tadesse Woldemariam (2002). Conservation and Use of the wild coffee population of Coffee arabica in the Montane Rainforests of Ethiopia, Project Proposal for Biosphere Research inTEgrative and Application Oriented Model Projects-Bio Team, ZEF, Bonn.

TekluTesfaye and Thomas, B. (2004). Wild Arabica coffee populations under severe threat: Farmers´ perception of existence, access to and conservation needs in the Montane Rainforests. Ethiopia DeutscherTropentag 2004-Berlin, 5–7 October 2004.

Vivi Ramdhani, Jaharuddin and Nugrahani E.H.: Dynamical System of Modelling the Depletion of Forestry Resources Due to Crowding by Industrialization, Applied Mathematical Sciences, Vol. 9, no. 82, 4067–4079, (2015).

WBISPP (2004), Forest Resources of Ethiopia. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: Ministry of Agriculture.


How to Cite

Yilekal Yewlu Taddesse. (2022). Mathematical Modeling on Assessing Rate of deforestation in The Sheka Forest South West Ethiopia. International Journal of Scientific and Applied Research (IJSAR), EISSN: 2583-0279, 2(2), 1–7.