Mathematical Modeling on Assessing Rate of deforestation in The Sheka Forest South West Ethiopia

Abstract

Deforestation leads to increasing temperature and depletion of soil nutrients, to soil erosion, and to changes in local and, some evidence indicates, global climate. These environmental disruptions increase the risk to human populations from both natural and man-made disasters and the immediate risk-takers are the local population. Tropical deforestation has become a global concern, with an annual total forest loss of 9.4 million hectares. The total forested area of Ethiopia has decreased substantially during the past half-century and the recent figures show that the country’s forest cover has shrunk to less than 3–3.6%. Primary data was collected from the local community in addition to the secondary data about the forest. The growth rates of forestry resources and population density are assumed to be following the logistic growth model. The growth of forest resources is in the direct proportion of population density and population pressure. The mathematical model of a system of differential equations was solved using backward Euler’s method; the deforestation rate was decreased because of the NGOs and the government worked together to increase awareness to the community about the importance of the forest. The rate of deforestation is per population change, this indicates the rate of deforestation is decreased. Recommendations were given to the concerned body.